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Back to Home Page Photo of Distance Home Construction vs Bird Counts During the Fourth of July 2007 fireworks and celebrations there was a "less than scientific" study being conducted on the effects of the birds nesting on a rock located 1.3 miles south of the launch site and approximately 400 yards off the shoreline. Below is what was found out about the bird report. Bad Science
“This was a real low budget effort”
"Most of the 90 nests of Brandt’s
Cormorants are not visible from shore. From an aerial photo we know
that they choose to nest on the outer flat half of the island in a
tight grid of nests spaced evenly apart as far as one neck and beak
reaches toward the next neck and beak. A narrow V in the rock allows
a view of about 10 nests of the 90." The so-called Sea Ranch Bird Report* is in itself a beautifully documented case study on how human bias and prejudice can skew “findings”. It teaches us something we already know about people, but unfortunately very little about birds. The Sea Ranch Bird Report was flawed by the first steps taken by the task force:
These steps forever removed any concept of “science” from The Sea Ranch Bird Report and in fact reinforces a basic principle: Garbage in. Garbage out. The report is defective from beginning to end:
Incredibly, the task force documented their own misconduct from the convenient analysis of scant subjective photographic data** to the deliberate omission of data that did not fit their position. Often that data appears in the report, just not in the conclusions. For example, the acoustical recordings contradicted the “anecdotal” descriptions from the year before. According to the task force, technical glitches are to blame and “sound analysis will require more complex filtering of background noise” (page 16) . The background noise referred to was the wind and the wave noise at the observation site. This report’s conclusion contradicts the findings of every other study done on fireworks and firework’s effects on the environment. The Sea Ranch Bird Report hypothesis #1: A fireworks display increases the rate of nest failure of seabird species over a background or natural rate of nest failure. (Page 9) This is the heart of the opposition case focusing on what harm was done, to which species, and not just anywhere; but on one specific rock that only people adamantly opposed to fireworks were allowed to observe. Coincidentally, a rock much closer to the fireworks, but observable by the general public didn’t seem to have the same problems with its birds (See page 3 & 10). The land-based observations showed that on any given day the count of any given species went up or down randomly; with swings far greater than 10% occurring frequently (pages 18, 21, 34, 37, 38 and 42). The Sea Ranch Bird Report’s basic hypothesis is that a drop in count, on one particular day for one particular species is proof of one particular cause. This demonstrates a critical aspect of the Sea Ranch Bird Report: The selective use of data. The task force did not get the proof they wanted from land observations and ignored the point that was revealed; randomness. Instead they focused on proving a negative effect based on the aerial photography** (see flyover schedule) and even then the facts had to be stretched to fit the proof. Analysis of the aerial photos is very subjective. For example, on page 26, the bird labeled #52 is identical to the bird directly below #3, but is analyzed differently. Why? Because it improves the skewed count and bolsters their premise. By eliminating the biased counting, and downright miscounting (example page 27, nest #76 was counted as abandoned, but was already counted as abandoned on page 26) one is left with a bird shuffle number that is fairly constant. Between the photo on page 25 and the one on page 26, about six or seven nests are empty that had had a bird nearby in the previous photo and additionally a couple of nests were occupied that had been empty. Between the photos on 27 and those on page 26, a similar number of bird shifting took place, whether the photos were three days apart or a month apart. Every photo of nesting cormorants prior to the fireworks shows a bit of shuffling at the periphery of the nesting group compared to the previous photo. The statement of results on page 3 that compares the nest loss after the Gualala fireworks to the amount of nests abandoned in the month prior to the fireworks misstates the facts. All that is known about the month prior to the fireworks show is based on the two aerial photos taken a month apart**(pages 25 & 26). Nothing is known about what the birds did between photos. It is preposterous to suggest that these few observable changes one month apart constitute the sum total of all bird activity (page 3). These observed changes represent the minimum possible number of changes, not the maximum as stated (page 3). If photographs had been taken a week apart a similar number of changes might have been documented, thus arriving at an “abandonment count” of dozens, possibly hundreds of nests abandoned in a one month period (five changes per day over 30 days). These numbers beg the question: Are these really nest abandonments or just birds shuffling around the periphery? And this question goes directly to the heart of the real issue, namely … what harm was done by the Gualala fireworks?? The aerial photography brings up another well-known scientific premise of which the task force pretended ignorance, namely, the act of observing affects that which is being observed. One cynical description of the task force's strategy would be to fly over the island once a month prior to the Gualala fireworks, then buzz the island three days in a row right before and after the Gualala fireworks to document any “disturbance” observed. The task force failed to mention any effect from their own repeated flyovers**. They also neglected to mention any affects from any disturbing activities other than fireworks. Not mentioned in the Sea Ranch Bird Report:
All of these events occurred in the presence of the monitoring group. This information was not mentioned in spite of the task force’s proposal that they would document “disturbances both natural and human mediated” (page 46). The issue of nest abandonment immediately following the fireworks compared to nest abandonment prior to the fireworks is the key element to the negative conclusions in the report and is based on self-serving conjecture not supported by the observations presented. * Throughout this document the term “Sea Ranch Bird Report” has been used for ease of reading to refer to the SEABIRD AND MARINE MAMMAL MONITORING ON OFFSHORE ROCK ISLANDS IN SONOMA COUNTY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES, CALIFORNIA, 2007 PRELIMINARY REPORT FINDINGS AND PROTOCOL DOCUMENTATION (Dated 18 October 2007) by The Sea Ranch California Coastal National Monument Stewardship Task Force. ** Schedule of Fly-Overs:
This
report response is SUBJECT TO REVISION and is based on the 2007
PRELIMINARY REPORT FINDINGS AND PROTOCOL DOCUMENTATION (Dated 18
October 2007) by The Sea Ranch California Coastal National Monument
Stewardship Task Force.
Most of the 90 nests of Brandt’s Cormorants are not visible from
shore. From an aerial photo we know that they choose to nest on the
outer flat half of the island in a tight grid of nests spaced evenly
apart as far as one neck and beak reaches toward the next neck and
beak. A narrow V in the rock allows a view of about 10 nests of the
90.
Observation Points from the Preliminary Report
Here is the excerpt from The Sea Ranch Bird Report. The BLM responses are in RED. 1.4 Hypotheses Examined Not all concerns listed in Section 1.3 are tested in the protocol used in the specific context here. The protocol and resulting information described herein examine the following. Hypotheses:
“They [The Sea Ranch] wrote the protocol”
1. A fireworks display increases the rate of nest failure of seabird
species over a
2. A fireworks display reduces the number of marine mammals using a
site near the display for hauling out to rest.
3. A fireworks display affects seabird species differently.
4. The rate of recovery to a fireworks display differs among seabird
species.
5. Disturbance by fireworks secondarily causes greater predation on
seabird nests (eggs and young) by predator bird species such as
western gull and common raven.
“This was a real low budget effort” Comparison of other areas is missing – Humboldt and Monterey Bays as an example. Both have conducted research. Preliminary Report from The Sea Ranch Waterbird - Fact-Sheet from the Fish and Wildlife Department. Master Seabird Monitoring Final Report So, you've read about the "bird report". Believe it or not, here is a photo of the rock that the opposition is wound up about. It's a whole 1.3 miles away from the launch site, and around a bend of the topography. The way they are talking, you would think we were launching the fireworks directly at the rookery!!!
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